Cerro 2–3 Boston River: Result & Stats

Cerro

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Boston River

M. Franco 62' (pen)

Darwin Torres 30'

G. Mastriani 54'

G. Fratta 48'

P. Álvarez 13'

3/3/2018

Primera División - Apertura · Round 5Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cerro40%

×Draw29%

Boston River30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerroExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

Cerro

1.17

Boston River

0.97

Cerro creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 82 away

1.06

creates per match

1.02

0.92

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cerro

1.06

Boston River

1.02

allows per match

Cerro

0.92

Boston River

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cerro or draw

70%

Cerro or Boston River

71%

Draw or Boston River

60%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+

17%

Boston River wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals

69%

Cerro 2+ goals

33%

Cerro 3+ goals

11%

Boston River 1+ goals

62%

Boston River 2+ goals

25%

Boston River 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)

57%

Boston River (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.92 · 64 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.06 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Boston River attack 1.02 + Cerro defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cerro scores more

40%

level

29%

Boston River scores more

30%

Cerro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

46'

48'

54'

57'

A. Hernández← R. Pellejero

60'

J. Pereyra← C. Valdez

61'

A. Nadruz← R. Flores

62'

M. FrancoPenalty

70'

J. Barboza← G. Guruceaga

78'

M. Sigales← M. Callorda

Cerro

Boston

12

Larrea

23

▼

Valdez

20

⚽

Álvarez

6

Arguiñare

4

⚽

Fratta

2

Araújo

19

Scotti

10

▼

Flores

7

Gallego

21

▼

Callorda

17

⚽

Mastriani

1

Deniz

21

▼

Guruceaga

2

⚽

22

17

13

5

▼

Pellejero

14

Tamareo

26

▼

Paiva

19

López

9

González

Manager: F. Correa

46'▲M. Franco←▼G. Paiva

57'▲A. Hernández←▼R. Pellejero

70'▲J. Barboza←▼G. Guruceaga

Cerro substitutes

11Franco10Hernández23Barboza4Duffard6Zazpe12Irrazábal18Acuña

Manager: A. Apud

60'▲J. Pereyra←▼C. Valdez

61'▲A. Nadruz←▼R. Flores

78'▲M. Sigales←▼M. Callorda

Boston River substitutes

3Pereyra16Nadruz9Sigales1Falcón8Gutiérrez13Maldonado14Etcheverry

Primera División - Apertura: Cerro 2–3 Boston River

Boston River beat Cerro 3-2 in Primera División - Apertura on March 3, 2018.

Goals: P. Álvarez (13'), Darwin Torres (30'), G. Fratta (48'), G. Mastriani (54'), M. Franco (62' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli (Montevideo).

Cerro vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División - Apertura: Cerro 2–3 Boston River