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Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
1/21/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cerro Porteno48%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Trinidense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.56
Sportivo Trinidense
1.10

Cerro Porteno creates 42% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.79
Sportivo Trinidense
1.39

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
0.82
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
73%
Cerro Porteno or Sportivo Trinidense
75%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
52%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
79%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
46%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
64%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
48%
level
25%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
27%

Cerro Porteno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Cerro Porteno 3–1 Sportivo Trinidense

Cerro Porteno beat Sportivo Trinidense 3-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.