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Cerro Largo vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
4/27/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Cerro Largo42%
×Draw28%
Boston River30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
1.25
Boston River
1.02

Cerro Largo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 82 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
1.24
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Cerro Largo
1.01
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
70%
Cerro Largo or Boston River
72%
Draw or Boston River
58%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
18%
Boston River wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
71%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
36%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
13%
Boston River 1+ goals
64%
Boston River 2+ goals
27%
Boston River 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
58%
Boston River (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 1.24 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Boston River attack 1.02 + Cerro Largo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
42%
level
28%
Boston River scores more
30%

Cerro Largo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerro Largo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Largo vs Boston River

Cerro Largo beat Boston River 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla in Melo.