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Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
11/29/2020J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Cerezo Osaka53%
×Draw25%
Yokohama FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.60
Yokohama FC
0.94

Cerezo Osaka creates 70% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 72 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.36
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.10
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
78%
Cerezo Osaka or Yokohama FC
75%
Draw or Yokohama FC
47%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
28%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
80%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
47%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
22%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
61%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
24%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
70%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.36 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
53%
level
25%
Yokohama FC scores more
22%

Cerezo Osaka at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Cerezo Osaka 1–0 Yokohama FC

Cerezo Osaka beat Yokohama FC 1-0 in J1 League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadium Nagai in Osaka.