Cerezo Osaka 3–5 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Cerezo Osaka

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Kyoto Sanga

8/17/2024

J1 League · Round 27Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cerezo Osaka50%

×Draw23%

Kyoto Sanga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerezo OsakaExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.32

Cerezo Osaka

1.85

Kyoto Sanga

1.32

Cerezo Osaka creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.91

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.91

Kyoto Sanga

1.33

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.31

Kyoto Sanga

1.79

+0.89scores more than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.89scores more

Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw

73%

Cerezo Osaka or Kyoto Sanga

77%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

50%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

28%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

84%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

55%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

28%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

73%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

38%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

64%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.91 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more

50%

level

23%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

27%

Cerezo Osaka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff