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Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
2/24/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cerezo Osaka48%
×Draw24%
FC Tokyo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.69
FC Tokyo
1.23

Cerezo Osaka creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.76
FC Tokyo
1.28

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.18
FC Tokyo
1.62

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.53scores more
FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
72%
Cerezo Osaka or FC Tokyo
76%
Draw or FC Tokyo
52%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
26%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
82%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
50%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
24%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
71%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
35%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
63%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 7 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.76 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
48%
level
24%
FC Tokyo scores more
28%

Cerezo Osaka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka and FC Tokyo drew 2-2 in J1 League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium in Osaka.