Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Cerezo Osaka

Preview

10:00

Fagiano Okayama

8/8/2026

J1 League · Round 1Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Big match

52%

Cerezo Osaka

model favours

52%24%24%

93% of Cerezo Osaka’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cerezo Osaka52%

×Draw24%

Fagiano Okayama24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerezo OsakaExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.09

Cerezo Osaka

1.71

Fagiano Okayama

1.09

Cerezo Osaka creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

0.96

1.23

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.74

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.23

Fagiano Okayama

1.67

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.14scores more

Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw

76%

Cerezo Osaka or Fagiano Okayama

76%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

48%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

28%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

82%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

51%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

24%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

66%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

30%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

68%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 24 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.74 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more

52%

level

24%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

24%

Cerezo Osaka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cerezo Osaka are unbeaten in 6 straight
Cerezo Osaka score first in only 29% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cerezo Osaka’s matches
Fagiano Okayama score first in only 31% of matches
Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings