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Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
1/18/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 21Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge34%
×Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.38
Union St. Gilloise
1.54

Union St. Gilloise creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.62
Union St. Gilloise
1.56

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.53
Union St. Gilloise
1.14

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less
Union St. Gilloise-0.29scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Union St. Gilloise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
59%
Cercle Brugge or Union St. Gilloise
75%
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
66%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
15%
Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
40%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
16%
Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
79%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
45%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
45%
Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
34%
level
25%
Union St. Gilloise scores more
41%

Union St. Gilloise at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 1–1 Union St. Gilloise

Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.