Cercle Brugge 0–3 Union St. Gilloise

Cercle Brugge

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Union St. Gilloise

L. Lapoussin 84'

D. Vanzeir 79', 60'

10/2/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 10Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cercle Brugge35%

×Draw25%

Union St. Gilloise40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.52

Cercle Brugge

1.40

Union St. Gilloise

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

1.67

creates per match

1.56

1.48

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

Union St. Gilloise

1.56

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

Union St. Gilloise

1.13

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less

Union St. Gilloise-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

60%

Cercle Brugge or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

65%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

16%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

75%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

41%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

17%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

78%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

45%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

46%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

35%

level

25%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

40%

Union St. Gilloise at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Undav

Union St. Gilloise · F

8.7

Match Events

22'

Leonardo Lopes

24'

Teddy Teuma

46'

S. Lynen← D. Marcq

46'

S. Van der Heyden← J. Bager

58'

L. Amani← S. Lynen

60'

D. Vanzeir↳ D. Undav

65'

O. Deman← D. Hotič

65'

Waldo Rubio← R. Matondo

70'

Siebe Van Der Heyden

73'

H. Van der Bruggen← J. Daland

73'

C. Vanhoutte← F. Kanoute

79'

D. Vanzeir↳ D. Undav

81'

Waldo Rubio Marin

81'

Álex Millán← B. Popović

83'

K. Mitoma← D. Vanzeir

84'

L. Lapoussin↳ K. Mitoma

88'

F. Avenatti← D. Undav

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleUnion

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots11

4Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

450Total Passes404

340Accurate Passes300

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0