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Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
10/7/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 10Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge46%
×Draw24%
OH Leuven30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.69
OH Leuven
1.31

Cercle Brugge creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.62
OH Leuven
1.10

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.53
OH Leuven
1.75

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less
OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
70%
Cercle Brugge or OH Leuven
76%
Draw or OH Leuven
54%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
24%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
82%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
50%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
24%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
73%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
38%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
61%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
46%
level
24%
OH Leuven scores more
30%

Cercle Brugge at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 3–2 OH Leuven

Cercle Brugge beat OH Leuven 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.