Cercle Brugge 1–1 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

OH Leuven

Waldo Rubio 73'

T. Henry 30'

7/31/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 2Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cercle Brugge47%

×Draw24%

OH Leuven29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Cercle Brugge

1.71

OH Leuven

1.29

Cercle Brugge creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

1.48

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

OH Leuven

1.10

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

OH Leuven

1.75

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less

OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

71%

Cercle Brugge or OH Leuven

76%

Draw or OH Leuven

53%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

25%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

82%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

51%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

24%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

72%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

37%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

62%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

47%

level

24%

OH Leuven scores more

29%

Cercle Brugge at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

X. Mercier

OH Leuven · F

8.0

Match Events

30'

T. Henry↳ X. Mercier

35'

Thomas Henry

61'

M. Maertens← M. Keita

63'

Waldo Rubio← O. Deman

63'

Vitinho← R. Decostere

66'

Edgaras Utkus

73'

Waldo Rubio

74'

T. Somers← K. Denkey

80'

Musa Al-Taamari← B. Bese

81'

D. Vekemans← S. Schrijvers

82'

Jesper Daland

86'

Dino Hotić

87'

A. Sampers← D. Hotič

87'

A. Corryn← Leonardo Lopes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleOH

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots10

2Corners3

21Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots10

3On Target1

8Off Target6

6Blocked3

11Inside Box9

6Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

438Total Passes419

336Accurate Passes316

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven

Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on July 31, 2021.

Goals: T. Henry (30'), Waldo Rubio (73').

Cercle Brugge controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.

Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven