Cercle Brugge 3–0 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

OH Leuven

J. Taravel 73'

I. Ugbo 56', 44'

4/10/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 33Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cercle Brugge47%

×Draw24%

OH Leuven29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Cercle Brugge

1.71

OH Leuven

1.29

Cercle Brugge creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

1.48

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

OH Leuven

1.10

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

OH Leuven

1.75

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less

OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

71%

Cercle Brugge or OH Leuven

76%

Draw or OH Leuven

53%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

25%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

82%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

51%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

24%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

72%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

37%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

62%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

47%

level

24%

OH Leuven scores more

29%

Cercle Brugge at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

I. Ugbo

Cercle Brugge · F

8.7

Match Events

33'

Kevin Hoggas

44'

I. Ugbo

46'

S. Schrijvers← I. Asante

46'

K. Thamsatchanan← R. Romo

54'

Casper De Norre

56'

I. Ugbo

58'

Jeremy Taravel

67'

D. Tshimanga← V. Jemelka

67'

Y. Aguemon← T. Vlietinck

69'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

73'

J. Taravel↳ D. Velkovski

77'

79'

81'

82'

88'

88'

Vitinho← R. Decostere

88'

A. Corryn← H. Van der Bruggen

90+2'

A. Cassaert← J. Taravel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleOH

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots13

4Corners10

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target2

2Off Target5

4Blocked6

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

279Total Passes499

192Accurate Passes399

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 3–0 OH Leuven

Cercle Brugge beat OH Leuven 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on April 10, 2021.

Goals: I. Ugbo (44', 56'), J. Taravel (73').

OH Leuven controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.

Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 3–0 OH Leuven