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Cercle Brugge vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
8/13/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cercle Brugge48%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.75
KV Mechelen
1.28

Cercle Brugge creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.67
KV Mechelen
1.08

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.48
KV Mechelen
1.83

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less
KV Mechelen+0.28scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
72%
Cercle Brugge or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
52%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
26%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
83%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
52%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
25%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
72%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
37%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
63%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.83 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + KV Mechelen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

KV Mechelen attack 1.08 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
48%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
28%

Cercle Brugge at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. MajeckiCercle BruggeCercle Brugge · G
7.9

Match Events

11'
Geoffry Hairemans
34'
Boli Bolingoli
57'
M. Shved← Y. Malede
64'
Heitor← L. Torres
64'
E. Kehrer← O. Deman
70'
J. Vanlerberghe← J. Van Hecke
70'
Alessio Da Cruz← G. Hairemans
75'
K. Denkey← A. Ueda
86'
J. Hernández← N. Storm
87'
H. Van der Bruggen← C. Vanhoutte
87'
I. Swers← B. Bolingoli-Mbombo
89'
Jorge Hernandez
90+5'
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck

Possession

48%Cercle

Shots

12Cercle

Pass accuracy

48%Cercle

Statistics

CercleKV
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots10
8Corners8
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots10
2On Target4
6Off Target5
4Blocked1
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
320Total Passes366
181Accurate Passes227
57%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
3Offsides3

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 0–0 KV Mechelen

Cercle Brugge and KV Mechelen drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 13, 2022.

KV Mechelen controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.