Cercle Brugge 2–2 Gent: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Gent

T. Somers 81', 4'

L. Depoitre 30'

T. Tissoudali 3'

4/3/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 33Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Cercle Brugge45%

×Draw23%

Gent32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchGent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.46

Cercle Brugge

1.75

Gent

1.46

Cercle Brugge creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.67

creates per match

1.43

1.48

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

Gent

1.43

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

Gent

1.84

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less

Gent-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Gent →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

68%

Cercle Brugge or Gent

77%

Draw or Gent

55%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

24%

Gent wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

83%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

52%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

25%

Gent 1+ goals

77%

Gent 2+ goals

43%

Gent 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

58%

Gent (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Gent away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.84 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Gent defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gent attack 1.43 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

45%

level

23%

Gent scores more

32%

Cercle Brugge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

T. Somers

Cercle Brugge · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

T. Tissoudali↳ A. Castro-Montes

4'

T. Somers↳ B. Popović

12'

Olivier Deman

22'

Laurent Depoitre

30'

L. Depoitre↳ T. Tissoudali

45+3'

A. Hjulsager← V. Odjidja-Ofoe

56'

Vitinho← Sousa

56'

K. Denkey← O. Deman

77'

C. Vanhoutte← B. Popović

81'

T. Somers↳ R. Matondo

86'

87'

90+4'

90+2'

90+6'

D. Lemajić← L. Depoitre

90+6'

Núrio Fortuna← S. Kums

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleGent

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots10

7Corners4

14Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target6

9Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

301Total Passes364

179Accurate Passes224

59%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 2–2 Gent

Cercle Brugge and Gent drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 3, 2022.

Goals: T. Tissoudali (3'), T. Somers (4', 81'), L. Depoitre (30').

Gent controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.

Cercle Brugge vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 2–2 Gent