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Cercle Brugge vs Club Brugge KV — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
2/18/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 26Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge32%
×Draw24%
Club Brugge KV45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.39
Club Brugge KV
1.70

Club Brugge KV creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.62
Club Brugge KV
1.86

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.53
Club Brugge KV
1.15

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less
Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Club Brugge KV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
55%
Cercle Brugge or Club Brugge KV
76%
Draw or Club Brugge KV
68%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
14%
Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
40%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
16%
Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
82%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
51%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
41%
Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
32%
level
24%
Club Brugge KV scores more
45%

Club Brugge KV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 1–1 Club Brugge KV

Cercle Brugge and Club Brugge KV drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.