Cercle Brugge vs Club Brugge KV — Jupiler Pro League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 24+ matches
Cercle Brugge33%
Club Brugge KV43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Brugge KV creates 16% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cercle Brugge ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 24 matches
Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cercle Brugge attack 1.68 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42
Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Club Brugge KV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
GenkClub Brugge KV
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
Charleroi
Royal Excel Mouscron
Zulte Waregem
AS EupenCercle Brugge
Oostende
Waasland-beveren
LokerenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Statistics
Cercle Brugge host Club Brugge KV on Thursday, 28 January 2021 at 17:45. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 1–2 Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 28, 2021.
Goals: A. Musaba (28'), B. Mechele (37'), N. Lang (58').
The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.