Cercle Brugge 2–2 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Club Brugge KV

Irvin Cardona 65'

Sofyan Amrabat 27' (OG)

Siebe Schrijvers 41'

Wesley 12'

2/10/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cercle Brugge32%

×Draw24%

Club Brugge KV44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.69

Cercle Brugge

1.42

Club Brugge KV

1.69

Club Brugge KV creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

1.90

1.48

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

Club Brugge KV

1.90

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

Club Brugge KV

1.16

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Club Brugge KV+0.03on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

56%

Cercle Brugge or Club Brugge KV

76%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

68%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

15%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

76%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

41%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

17%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

82%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

50%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

42%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 26 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.16 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Club Brugge KV attack 1.90 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

32%

level

24%

Club Brugge KV scores more

44%

Club Brugge KV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Wesley

23'

Hans Vanaken

27'

Sofyan AmrabatOwn goal

31'

Mats Rits

41'

Siebe Schrijvers

53'

Johanna Ochieng Omolo

61'

Kylian Hazard← Naomichi Ueda

65'

Irvin Cardona

73'

Dion Cools← Clinton Mata

75'

Stefano Denswil

75'

Irvin Cardona← Irvin Cardona

78'

Loïs Openda← Wesley

85'

Isaac Kone← Serge Gakpé

85'

Kaveh Rezaei← Sofyan Amrabat

90'

Johanna Ochieng Omolo

90'

Jeremy Taravel

90'

Isaac Kone

90'

Johanna Ochieng Omolo

90'

Ruud Vormer

Statistics

CercleClub

Overview

1Corners10

Discipline

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0