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Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Charleroi
Charleroi
J. Daland 90'
L. Bessilé 8'
R. Morioka 3'
11/20/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge41%
×Draw25%
Charleroi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.53
Charleroi
1.36

Cercle Brugge creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.67
Charleroi
1.24

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.48
Charleroi
1.40

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less
Charleroi+0.06on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
66%
Cercle Brugge or Charleroi
75%
Draw or Charleroi
59%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
20%
Charleroi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
78%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
45%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
20%
Charleroi 1+ goals
74%
Charleroi 2+ goals
39%
Charleroi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
55%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Charleroi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Charleroi attack 1.24 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
41%
level
25%
Charleroi scores more
34%

Cercle Brugge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
R. MoriokaCharleroiCharleroi · F
7.9

Match Events

3'
R. Morioka↳ A. Descotte
8'
L. Bessilé↳ S. Knežević
38'
Rabbi Matondo
46'
D. Velkovski← S. Miangué
46'
O. Deman← Álex Millán
51'
Marco Ilaimaharitra
54'
Loic Bessile
54'
S. Nicholson← A. Descotte
63'
K. Denkey← D. Hotič
66'
Leonardo Lopes
73'
E. Utkus← H. Van der Bruggen
73'
Waldo Rubio← R. Matondo
75'
Ryota Morioka
75'
A. Benchaib← J. Tchatchoua
88'
G. Gillet← A. Gholizadeh
88'
A. Zaroury← A. Zorgane
89'
Joris Kayembe Ditu
90'
J. Daland↳ D. Velkovski

Possession

58%Cercle

Shots

24Cercle

Pass accuracy

53%Cercle

Statistics

CercleCharleroi
Overview
58%Possession42%
24Total Shots11
3Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
24Total Shots11
7On Target4
12Off Target4
5Blocked3
12Inside Box7
12Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
504Total Passes373
416Accurate Passes271
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi

Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on November 20, 2021.

Goals: R. Morioka (3'), L. Bessilé (8'), J. Daland (90').

Cercle Brugge controlled possession (58%) and registered 24 shots to 11.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.