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Cercle Brugge vs AS Eupen — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
C. Vanhoutte 35'
E. Agbadou 81'
E. Kayembe 19'
9/17/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Cercle Brugge49%
×Draw24%
AS Eupen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.71
AS Eupen
1.19

Cercle Brugge creates 44% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.44
AS Eupen
0.96

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.43
AS Eupen
1.97

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
73%
Cercle Brugge or AS Eupen
76%
Draw or AS Eupen
51%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
27%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
82%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
51%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
24%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
70%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
33%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
65%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 141 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.44 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
49%
level
24%
AS Eupen scores more
27%

Cercle Brugge at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
J. HerisAS EupenAS Eupen · D
8.3

Match Events

19'
E. Kayembe↳ S. Prevljak
35'
C. Vanhoutte↳ Álex Millán
38'
Andreas Beck
53'
Smail Prevljak
58'
J. Déom← E. Kayembe
58'
K. N’Dri← A. Beck
72'
D. Hotič← O. Deman
77'
S. Keita← B. Lambert
81'
E. Agbadou↳ S. Peeters
82'
Jesper Daland
85'
K. Denkey← Álex Millán
85'
Waldo Rubio← J. Daland
90+4'
Leonardo Lopes
90+4'
Mamadou Koné
90+2'
T. Somers← R. Matondo
90+2'
M. Koné← S. Prevljak
90+2'
S. Gnaka← I. Nuhu

Possession

47%Cercle

Shots

12Cercle

Pass accuracy

49%Cercle

Statistics

CercleAS
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots16
4Corners5
10Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots16
3On Target8
7Off Target6
2Blocked2
7Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
385Total Passes455
297Accurate Passes367
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs AS Eupen

AS Eupen beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 17, 2021.

Goals: E. Kayembe (19'), C. Vanhoutte (35'), E. Agbadou (81').

AS Eupen controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.