Ceramica Cleopatra 0–1 Pyramids FC: Result & Stats

Ceramica Cleopatra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pyramids FC

12/27/2020

Premier League · Round 4New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra31%

×Draw27%

Pyramids FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceramica CleopatraExpected goals in this matchPyramids FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.38

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.14

Pyramids FC

1.38

Pyramids FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 129 away

1.33

creates per match

1.61

1.14

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.33

Pyramids FC

1.61

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.14

Pyramids FC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Pyramids FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw

58%

Ceramica Cleopatra or Pyramids FC

73%

Draw or Pyramids FC

69%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

12%

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

68%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

32%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

11%

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

75%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

40%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

42%

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

31%

level

27%

Pyramids FC scores more

42%

Pyramids FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff