Centro Español 1–2 Victoriano Arenas

Centro Español

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Victoriano Arenas

3/18/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 8Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Centro Español52%

×Draw25%

Victoriano Arenas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Centro EspañolExpected goals in this matchVictoriano Arenas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.95

Centro Español

1.58

Victoriano Arenas

0.95

Centro Español creates 66% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 136 away

1.59

creates per match

0.84

1.06

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Centro Español

1.59

Victoriano Arenas

0.84

allows per match

Centro Español

1.06

Victoriano Arenas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Centro Español+0.00on par

Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centro Español ↓

Victoriano Arenas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Centro Español or draw

77%

Centro Español or Victoriano Arenas

75%

Draw or Victoriano Arenas

48%

Winning margin

Centro Español wins by 2+

27%

Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Centro Español 1+ goals

79%

Centro Español 2+ goals

47%

Centro Español 3+ goals

21%

Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals

61%

Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals

25%

Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Centro Español (draw refunded)

70%

Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centro Español at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Victoriano Arenas away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centro Español attack 1.59 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Victoriano Arenas attack 0.84 + Centro Español defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Centro Español scores more

52%

level

25%

Victoriano Arenas scores more

23%

Centro Español at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Centro Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff