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Central Valley Fuego vs Chattanooga Red Wolves — USL League One 2019

Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
8/4/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 11Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego34%
×Draw26%
Chattanooga Red Wolves41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego
1.29
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.44

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 100 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.00
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.20

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.67
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par
Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw
59%
Central Valley Fuego or Chattanooga Red Wolves
74%
Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves
66%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
15%
Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
72%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
37%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
14%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
76%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
42%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
45%
Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more
34%
level
26%
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
41%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Chattanooga Red Wolves beat Central Valley Fuego 1-0 in USL League One on August 4, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno State Soccer Stadium in Fresno, California.