Central Stallions 0–1 Khangarid: Result & Stats

Central Stallions

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khangarid

3/16/2024

Premier League · Round 12Mongolian Football Federation Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central Stallions26%

×Draw18%

Khangarid56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central StallionsExpected goals in this matchKhangarid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

2.84

Central Stallions

1.93

Khangarid

2.84

Khangarid creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 81 away

2.00

creates per match

2.26

3.42

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Central Stallions

2.00

Khangarid

2.26

allows per match

Central Stallions

3.42

Khangarid

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Stallions+0.00on par

Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Stallions ↓

Khangarid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Central Stallions or draw

44%

Central Stallions or Khangarid

82%

Draw or Khangarid

74%

Winning margin

Central Stallions wins by 2+

13%

Khangarid wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Central Stallions 1+ goals

85%

Central Stallions 2+ goals

57%

Central Stallions 3+ goals

30%

Khangarid 1+ goals

94%

Khangarid 2+ goals

77%

Khangarid 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Central Stallions (draw refunded)

32%

Khangarid (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Stallions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.42 · 38 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Stallions attack 2.00 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Central Stallions defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Central Stallions scores more

26%

level

18%

Khangarid scores more

56%

Khangarid at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff