Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Central Stallions vs Deren — Premier League 2020

Central Stallions
Central Stallions
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deren
Deren
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Airdom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central Stallions18%
×Draw16%
Deren66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Stallions
1.58
Deren
3.04

Deren creates 92% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 80 away

creates per match

Central Stallions
2.00
Deren
2.66

allows per match

Central Stallions
3.42
Deren
1.16

finishing

Central Stallions+0.00on par
Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Stallions ↓

Deren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Central Stallions or draw
34%
Central Stallions or Deren
84%
Draw or Deren
82%

Winning margin

Central Stallions wins by 2+
8%
Deren wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Central Stallions 1+ goals
79%
Central Stallions 2+ goals
47%
Central Stallions 3+ goals
21%
Deren 1+ goals
95%
Deren 2+ goals
80%
Deren 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Central Stallions (draw refunded)
21%
Deren (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Stallions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.42 · 38 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Stallions attack 2.00 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deren attack 2.66 + Central Stallions defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Central Stallions scores more
18%
level
16%
Deren scores more
66%

Deren at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Central Stallions 3–2 Deren

Central Stallions beat Deren 3-2 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Airdom Stadium in Ulaanbaatar.