Central Norte vs Deportivo Moron

Central Norte

Preview

00:30

Deportivo Moron

7/21/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

38%

Central Norte

model favours

38%31%31%

Central Norte sit 16, Deportivo Moron 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

68%

under 2.5 goals

39%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Central Norte38%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Moron31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central NorteExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Moron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.91

Central Norte

1.06

Deportivo Moron

0.91

Central Norte creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 129 away

1.08

creates per match

0.78

1.04

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Central Norte

1.08

Deportivo Moron

0.78

allows per match

Central Norte

1.04

Deportivo Moron

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Deportivo Moron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw

69%

Central Norte or Deportivo Moron

69%

Draw or Deportivo Moron

62%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals

65%

Central Norte 2+ goals

29%

Central Norte 3+ goals

9%

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Moron 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Moron 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)

56%

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.08 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + Central Norte defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Central Norte scores more

38%

level

31%

Deportivo Moron scores more

31%

Central Norte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Norte

LDWDL

Moron

DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff