Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central — Primera Nacional 2011
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Atletico Tucuman34%
Rosario Central38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Tucuman ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Rosario Central away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Tucuman attack 1.00 + Rosario Central defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07
Rosario Central attack 1.29 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Rosario Central at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Atletico Tucuman substitutes
Sarmiento Junin
Arsenal Sarandi
Nueva Chicago
Almagro
Platense
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Brown DE Adrogue
Ferro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atletico Tucuman host Rosario Central on Saturday, 19 November 2011 at 22:10. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2011/2012 season.
Atletico Tucuman 2 – 1 Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman beat Rosario Central 2-1 in Primera Nacional on November 19, 2011.
Goals: S. Longo (49'), A. Medina (63'), E. Galíndez (87').
The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro.