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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Union Santa Fe — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe
12/3/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago41%
×Draw29%
Union Santa Fe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.20
Union Santa Fe
0.98

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.36
Union Santa Fe
0.94

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.02
Union Santa Fe
1.03

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.44scores more
Union Santa Fe+0.11scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Union Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
70%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Union Santa Fe
71%
Draw or Union Santa Fe
59%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
18%
Union Santa Fe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
70%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
34%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
12%
Union Santa Fe 1+ goals
62%
Union Santa Fe 2+ goals
26%
Union Santa Fe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
58%
Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.36 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Union Santa Fe attack 0.94 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
41%
level
29%
Union Santa Fe scores more
30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Union Santa Fe

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Union Santa Fe 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.