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Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
12/31/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 10Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Central Coast Mariners44%
×Draw24%
Perth Glory32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners
1.69
Perth Glory
1.42

Central Coast Mariners creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 106 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.55
Perth Glory
1.23

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.61
Perth Glory
1.83

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw
68%
Central Coast Mariners or Perth Glory
76%
Draw or Perth Glory
56%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
23%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
82%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
50%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
24%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
76%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
41%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
58%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.55 + Perth Glory defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Perth Glory attack 1.23 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more
44%
level
24%
Perth Glory scores more
32%

Central Coast Mariners at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Central Coast Mariners 4–2 Perth Glory

Central Coast Mariners beat Perth Glory 4-2 in A-League on December 31, 2023.

The match was played at Industree Group Stadium in Gosford.