Central Coast Mariners FC 3–1 Western Sydney

Central Coast Mariners FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Western Sydney

K. Rowles 56'

M. Simon 52' (pen), 34'

M. Bridge 67' (pen)

4/20/2019

A-League · Round 26Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC40%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast Mariners FCExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.56

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.66

Western Sydney

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 105 away

1.55

creates per match

1.51

1.61

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.55

Western Sydney

1.51

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.61

Western Sydney

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Western Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw

64%

Central Coast Mariners FC or Western Sydney

77%

Draw or Western Sydney

60%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

21%

Western Sydney wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

81%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

49%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

23%

Western Sydney 1+ goals

79%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

46%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

53%

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

40%

level

23%

Western Sydney scores more

36%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Simon

Central Coast Mariners FC · F

8.6

Match Events

27'

32'

34'

42'

51'

52'

M. SimonPenalty

56'

K. Rowles↳ J. Clisby

63'

K. Baccus← T. Elrich

63'

A. Majok← M. Duke

63'

M. Bridge← Oriol Riera

67'

M. BridgePenalty

68'

T. Hiariej← J. Karacan

71'

Kye Rowles

90+2'

P. Kekeris← A. Hoole

90+4'

D. Diaz← M. Simon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralWestern

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots13

6Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

332Total Passes368

260Accurate Passes296

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards–

2Offsides0