Central Coast Mariners FC 0–3 Perth Glory FC

Central Coast Mariners FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Perth Glory FC

N. Kilkenny 57' (pen)

D. Đulbić 29'

J. Chianese 12'

4/7/2019

A-League · Round 24Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC44%

×Draw24%

Perth Glory FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast Mariners FCExpected goals in this matchPerth Glory FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.42

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.69

Perth Glory FC

1.42

Central Coast Mariners FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 106 away

1.55

creates per match

1.23

1.61

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.55

Perth Glory FC

1.23

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.61

Perth Glory FC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Perth Glory FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw

68%

Central Coast Mariners FC or Perth Glory FC

76%

Draw or Perth Glory FC

56%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

23%

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

82%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

50%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

24%

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals

76%

Perth Glory FC 2+ goals

41%

Perth Glory FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

58%

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Perth Glory FC attack 1.23 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

44%

level

24%

Perth Glory FC scores more

32%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

N. Kilkenny

Perth Glory FC · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

Aiden O'Neill

12'

J. Chianese↳ A. Keogh

20'

Kye Rowles

25'

Jason Davidson

29'

D. Đulbić↳ N. Kilkenny

40'

Juande

46'

C. Pain← S. Mallon

46'

Diego Castro← C. Ikonomidis

57'

N. KilkennyPenalty

67'

A. Hoole← J. Murray

73'

B. Santalab← J. Chianese

82'

M. McGlinchey← M. Simon

82'

S. Neville← J. Davidson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralPerth

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots11

8Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target7

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

460Total Passes503

382Accurate Passes418

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2