Central Coast Mariners FC 2–3 Melbourne Victory

Central Coast Mariners FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Melbourne Victory

A. Hoole 45+4', 18'

K. Barbarouses 88'

B. Kennedy 68' (OG)

J. Troisi 50'

2/2/2019

A-League · Round 17Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC38%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Victory38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast Mariners FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.49

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.50

Melbourne Victory

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.36

1.61

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.55

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.61

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw

62%

Central Coast Mariners FC or Melbourne Victory

76%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

62%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

18%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

78%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

44%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

77%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

44%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

50%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

38%

level

24%

Melbourne Victory scores more

38%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Hoole

Central Coast Mariners FC · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

Jacob Melling

17'

Thomas Deng

18'

A. Hoole

44'

A. Lesiotis← C. Valeri

45'

Leigh Broxham

45+4'

A. Hoole

46'

E. Kamsoba← J. Hope

50'

J. Troisi↳ E. Kamsoba

54'

J. Karacan← J. Murray

68'

B. KennedyOwn goal

70'

Matt Simon

72'

Connor Pain

72'

T. Oar← A. Hoole

85'

G. Niedermeier← Raúl Baena

87'

Jem Karacan

88'

K. Barbarouses↳ J. Troisi

89'

M. McGlinchey← J. Melling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralMelbourne

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots17

6Corners9

15Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots17

5On Target8

9Off Target5

5Blocked4

11Inside Box12

8Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

317Total Passes444

216Accurate Passes320

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1