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Central Coast Mariners FC vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners FC
Central Coast Mariners FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
1/20/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 14Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC44%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.64
Brisbane Roar FC
1.38

Central Coast Mariners FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 105 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.55
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.61
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw
68%
Central Coast Mariners FC or Brisbane Roar FC
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
56%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+
22%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals
81%
Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals
49%
Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
75%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
40%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)
57%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more
44%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
32%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast Mariners FC vs Brisbane Roar FC

Central Coast Mariners FC and Brisbane Roar FC drew 1-1 in A-League on January 20, 2019.

The match was played at Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford.