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Celtic vs Hibernian — League Cup 2018

Celtic
Celtic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hibernian
Hibernian
8/18/2024League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundCeltic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Celtic55%
×Draw21%
Hibernian23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.04
Hibernian
1.26

Celtic creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Celtic
3.00
Hibernian
1.79

allows per match

Celtic
0.73
Hibernian
1.07

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
77%
Celtic or Hibernian
79%
Draw or Hibernian
45%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
33%
Hibernian wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
87%
Celtic 2+ goals
60%
Celtic 3+ goals
33%
Hibernian 1+ goals
72%
Hibernian 2+ goals
36%
Hibernian 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
70%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.00 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hibernian attack 1.79 + Celtic defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Celtic scores more
55%
level
21%
Hibernian scores more
23%

Celtic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celtic vs Hibernian

Celtic beat Hibernian 3-1 in League Cup on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.