Celtic 5–2 Falkirk: Result & Stats | League Cup

Celtic

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Falkirk

N. Kühn 84', 81'

A. Idah 72', 70'

Paulo Bernardo 21'

F. Yeats 45+1'

R. MacIver 11'

9/22/2024

League Cup · Quarter-finalsCeltic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Celtic59%

×Draw20%

Falkirk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.36

Celtic

2.34

Falkirk

1.36

Celtic creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

0.73

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Celtic

3.00

Falkirk

2.00

allows per match

Celtic

0.73

Falkirk

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Falkirk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

78%

Celtic or Falkirk

80%

Draw or Falkirk

41%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

37%

Falkirk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

90%

Celtic 2+ goals

67%

Celtic 3+ goals

41%

Falkirk 1+ goals

74%

Falkirk 2+ goals

39%

Falkirk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

73%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.00 + Falkirk defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Falkirk attack 2.00 + Celtic defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Celtic scores more

59%

level

20%

Falkirk scores more

22%

Celtic at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

R. MacIver

21'

Paulo Bernardo↳ Álex Valle

45+1'

F. Yeats↳ A. Agyeman

55'

G. Oliver← R. MacIver

60'

Yang Hyun-Jun← L. Palma

60'

A. Engels← R. Hatate

61'

G. Taylor← Álex Valle

61'

N. Kühn← J. Forrest

67'

M. McKenna← F. Yeats

70'

A. Idah↳ N. Kühn

72'

A. Idah↳ N. Kühn

73'

75'

77'

81'

84'

85'

M. Nawrocki← S. Welsh

90'

M. McKenna

Celtic

Falkirk

1

6

5

26

20

29

8

21

2

⚽

▼

Yeats

9

⚽

▼

MacIver

11

A

▼

1

56

6

57

▼

Welsh

11

A

▼

Valle

49

▼

Forrest

42

McGregor

41

▼

Hatate

28

⚽

Bernardo

9

⚽2

Idah

7

▼

Palma

Manager: B. Rodgers

60'▲Yang Hyun-Jun←▼L. Palma

60'▲A. Engels←▼R. Hatate

61'▲G. Taylor←▼Álex Valle

61'▲N. Kühn←▼J. Forrest

85'▲M. Nawrocki←▼S. Welsh

Celtic substitutes

13Hyun-Jun27Engels3Taylor10Kühn17Nawrocki63Donovan15Holm8Furuhashi29Bain

Manager: J. McGlynn

55'▲G. Oliver←▼R. MacIver

67'▲M. McKenna←▼F. Yeats

75'▲E. Ross←▼A. Agyeman

Falkirk substitutes

18Oliver14McKenna23Ross34McCafferty12Sneddon27Hayward22Graham35McCrone3McCann

Match Recap: Celtic vs Falkirk

Celtic beat Falkirk 5-2 in League Cup on September 22, 2024.

Goals: R. MacIver (11'), Paulo Bernardo (21'), F. Yeats (45+1'), A. Idah (70', 72'), N. Kühn (81', 84').

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.

Celtic vs Falkirk — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Celtic vs Falkirk