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Celtic vs Aberdeen — Premiership 2018

Celtic
Celtic
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
11/12/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 13Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Celtic64%
×Draw20%
Aberdeen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.07
Aberdeen
0.93

Celtic creates 123% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Celtic
2.25
Aberdeen
1.15

allows per match

Celtic
0.71
Aberdeen
1.89

finishing

Celtic-0.15scores less
Aberdeen-0.26scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
84%
Celtic or Aberdeen
80%
Draw or Aberdeen
36%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
39%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
87%
Celtic 2+ goals
61%
Celtic 3+ goals
34%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
61%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
24%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
80%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.71 · 10 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 2.25 + Aberdeen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.07

Aberdeen attack 1.15 + Celtic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Celtic scores more
64%
level
20%
Aberdeen scores more
16%

Celtic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Celtic 6–0 Aberdeen

Celtic beat Aberdeen 6-0 in Premiership on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.