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Celta Vigo vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Levante
Levante
7/16/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 37Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Celta Vigo47%
×Draw25%
Levante29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta Vigo
1.59
Levante
1.19

Celta Vigo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Celta Vigo
1.47
Levante
1.18

allows per match

Celta Vigo
1.20
Levante
1.71

finishing

Celta Vigo+0.07on par
Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw
71%
Celta Vigo or Levante
75%
Draw or Levante
53%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+
24%
Levante wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals
80%
Celta Vigo 2+ goals
47%
Celta Vigo 3+ goals
21%
Levante 1+ goals
70%
Levante 2+ goals
33%
Levante 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)
62%
Levante (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.47 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Levante attack 1.18 + Celta Vigo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Celta Vigo scores more
47%
level
25%
Levante scores more
29%

Celta Vigo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante

Levante beat Celta Vigo 3-2 in La Liga on July 16, 2020.

The match was played at Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.