Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Celta Vigo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Elche

Santi Mina 68', 45'

Brais Méndez 45+2'

E. Rigoni 50'

2/12/2021

La Liga · Round 23Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Celta Vigo55%

×Draw24%

Elche21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta VigoExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.91

Celta Vigo

1.66

Elche

0.91

Celta Vigo creates 82% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

0.71

1.10

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Celta Vigo

1.57

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Celta Vigo

1.10

Elche

1.75

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Celta Vigo-0.01on par

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

79%

Celta Vigo or Elche

76%

Draw or Elche

45%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

30%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

81%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

49%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

23%

Elche 1+ goals

60%

Elche 2+ goals

23%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

73%

Elche (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 36 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.57 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Elche attack 0.71 + Celta Vigo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Celta Vigo scores more

55%

level

24%

Elche scores more

21%

Celta Vigo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Santi Mina

Celta Vigo · F

8.3

Match Events

27'

Josema Sánchez← Josan Ferrández

31'

Tete Morente← J. Mojica

36'

Emiliano Rigoni

45'

Santi Mina↳ Nolito

45+2'

Brais Méndez↳ Nolito

46'

Dani Calvo← Diego González

50'

E. Rigoni↳ G. Carrillo

53'

Brais Méndez

63'

A. Solari← Nolito

68'

Santi Mina↳ A. Solari

76'

F. Ferreyra← Brais Méndez

76'

Fran Beltrán← Santi Mina

78'

Facundo Ferreyra

82'

Iago Aspas

82'

Gonzalo Verdú

85'

Pere Milla← G. Carrillo

89'

Miguel Baeza← Denis Suárez

89'

J. Aidoo← Iago Aspas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CeltaElche

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots7

3Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots7

6On Target2

3Off Target4

0Blocked1

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

420Total Passes402

324Accurate Passes313

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2