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Celje vs Maribor — 1. SNL 2026

Celje
Celje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maribor
Maribor
3/9/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 25Stadion Z'dežele

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Celje42%
×Draw25%
Maribor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celje
1.54
Maribor
1.33

Celje creates 16% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 125 away

creates per match

Celje
1.89
Maribor
1.53

allows per match

Celje
1.13
Maribor
1.19

finishing

Celje+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celje ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celje or draw
67%
Celje or Maribor
75%
Draw or Maribor
58%

Winning margin

Celje wins by 2+
21%
Maribor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Celje 1+ goals
79%
Celje 2+ goals
45%
Celje 3+ goals
20%
Maribor 1+ goals
74%
Maribor 2+ goals
38%
Maribor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Celje (draw refunded)
56%
Maribor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.13 · 126 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celje attack 1.89 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.54

Maribor attack 1.53 + Celje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Celje scores more
42%
level
25%
Maribor scores more
33%

Celje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celje 1 – 1 Maribor

Celje and Maribor drew 1-1 in 1. SNL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Z'dežele in Celje.