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Céleste vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Céleste
Céleste
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
9/8/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Céleste29%
×Draw31%
Motema Pembe40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Céleste
0.89
Motema Pembe
1.10

Motema Pembe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 83 away

creates per match

Céleste
0.83
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Céleste
1.06
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Céleste+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Céleste ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Céleste or draw
60%
Céleste or Motema Pembe
69%
Draw or Motema Pembe
71%

Winning margin

Céleste wins by 2+
10%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Céleste 1+ goals
59%
Céleste 2+ goals
22%
Céleste 3+ goals
6%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
67%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
30%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Céleste (draw refunded)
42%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Céleste at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Céleste attack 0.83 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Céleste defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Céleste scores more
29%
level
31%
Motema Pembe scores more
40%

Motema Pembe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Céleste 1–3 Motema Pembe

Motema Pembe beat Céleste 3-1 in Ligue 1 on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.