Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Celaya vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
9/29/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Celaya51%
×Draw26%
Venados FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.54
Venados FC
0.93

Celaya creates 66% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 129 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
77%
Celaya or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
49%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
27%
Venados FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
79%
Celaya 2+ goals
45%
Celaya 3+ goals
20%
Venados FC 1+ goals
61%
Venados FC 2+ goals
24%
Venados FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
69%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Celaya scores more
51%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
23%

Celaya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celaya vs Venados FC

Venados FC beat Celaya 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya).