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Celaya vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
3/1/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Celaya48%
×Draw27%
Tampico Madero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.38
Tampico Madero
0.91

Celaya creates 52% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 62 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Tampico Madero
0.94

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Tampico Madero
1.24

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
75%
Celaya or Tampico Madero
73%
Draw or Tampico Madero
52%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
23%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
75%
Celaya 2+ goals
40%
Celaya 3+ goals
16%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
60%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
23%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
66%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Tampico Madero defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tampico Madero attack 0.94 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Celaya scores more
48%
level
27%
Tampico Madero scores more
25%

Celaya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celaya vs Tampico Madero

Celaya and Tampico Madero drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya).