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Celaya vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
4/14/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Celaya49%
×Draw26%
Leones Negros UDG25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.46
Leones Negros UDG
0.96

Celaya creates 52% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 134 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
75%
Celaya or Leones Negros UDG
74%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
51%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
24%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
77%
Celaya 2+ goals
43%
Celaya 3+ goals
18%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
62%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
25%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
66%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Celaya scores more
49%
level
26%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
25%

Celaya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celaya vs Leones Negros UDG

Celaya and Leones Negros UDG drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya).