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Cedar Stars Rush vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Cedar Stars Rush
Cedar Stars Rush
PST
00:00
New York RB III
New York RB III
7/4/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 47Fairleigh Dickinson University Field (Teaneck, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cedar Stars Rush42%
×Draw25%
New York RB III33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cedar Stars Rush
1.48
New York RB III
1.29

Cedar Stars Rush creates 15% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.90
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.52
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Cedar Stars Rush+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cedar Stars Rush ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cedar Stars Rush or draw
67%
Cedar Stars Rush or New York RB III
75%
Draw or New York RB III
58%

Winning margin

Cedar Stars Rush wins by 2+
20%
New York RB III wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cedar Stars Rush 1+ goals
77%
Cedar Stars Rush 2+ goals
43%
Cedar Stars Rush 3+ goals
19%
New York RB III 1+ goals
72%
New York RB III 2+ goals
37%
New York RB III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cedar Stars Rush (draw refunded)
56%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cedar Stars Rush at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cedar Stars Rush attack 1.90 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Cedar Stars Rush defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cedar Stars Rush scores more
42%
level
25%
New York RB III scores more
33%

Cedar Stars Rush at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cedar Stars Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cedar Stars Rush face New York RB III (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Cedar Stars Rush hosting New York RB III. Match starts July 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cedar Stars Rush host New York RB III at Fairleigh Dickinson University Field (Teaneck, New Jersey).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.