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Ceares vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ceares41%
×Draw27%
Tuilla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.35
Tuilla
1.17

Ceares creates 15% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
68%
Ceares or Tuilla
73%
Draw or Tuilla
59%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
19%
Tuilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
74%
Ceares 2+ goals
39%
Ceares 3+ goals
15%
Tuilla 1+ goals
69%
Tuilla 2+ goals
33%
Tuilla 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
56%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ceares scores more
41%
level
27%
Tuilla scores more
32%

Ceares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Ceares 0–0 Tuilla

Ceares and Tuilla drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Cruz in Gijón.