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Ceares vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Praviano
Praviano
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ceares38%
×Draw28%
Praviano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.24
Praviano
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
Praviano
1.23

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
65%
Ceares or Praviano
72%
Draw or Praviano
62%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
16%
Praviano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
71%
Ceares 2+ goals
35%
Ceares 3+ goals
13%
Praviano 1+ goals
69%
Praviano 2+ goals
33%
Praviano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
52%
Praviano (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Praviano attack 1.18 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ceares scores more
38%
level
28%
Praviano scores more
35%

Ceares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceares vs Praviano

Praviano beat Ceares 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Cruz in Gijón.