Ceares 2–1 Gijón Industrial: Result & Stats

Ceares

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gijón Industrial

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ceares47%

×Draw26%

Gijón Industrial27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearesExpected goals in this matchGijón Industrial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

Ceares

1.47

Gijón Industrial

1.06

Ceares creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 80 away

1.25

creates per match

0.95

1.17

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ceares

1.25

Gijón Industrial

0.95

allows per match

Ceares

1.17

Gijón Industrial

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Gijón Industrial →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ceares or draw

73%

Ceares or Gijón Industrial

74%

Draw or Gijón Industrial

53%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+

23%

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals

77%

Ceares 2+ goals

43%

Ceares 3+ goals

18%

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

65%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

29%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)

63%

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ceares scores more

47%

level

26%

Gijón Industrial scores more

27%

Ceares at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff