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Ceares vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
CANC
00:00
Caudal
Caudal
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ceares32%
×Draw28%
Caudal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.10
Caudal
1.26

Caudal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
Caudal
1.35

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
Caudal
0.96

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Caudal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
60%
Ceares or Caudal
72%
Draw or Caudal
68%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
13%
Caudal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
67%
Ceares 2+ goals
30%
Ceares 3+ goals
10%
Caudal 1+ goals
72%
Caudal 2+ goals
36%
Caudal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
45%
Caudal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Caudal attack 1.35 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ceares scores more
32%
level
28%
Caudal scores more
40%

Caudal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceares vs Caudal — Match Preview

Ceares face Caudal on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ceares host Caudal at Estadio La Cruz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.