CDS Tampico Madero 1–0 Mineros de Zacatecas

CDS Tampico Madero

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mineros de Zacatecas

J. López 80'

8/31/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CDS Tampico Madero49%

×Draw26%

Mineros de Zacatecas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDS Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchMineros de Zacatecas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.00

CDS Tampico Madero

1.52

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.00

CDS Tampico Madero creates 52% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 139 away

1.49

creates per match

1.27

0.73

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

CDS Tampico Madero

1.49

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.27

allows per match

CDS Tampico Madero

0.73

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDS Tampico Madero ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CDS Tampico Madero or draw

75%

CDS Tampico Madero or Mineros de Zacatecas

74%

Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas

51%

Winning margin

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

25%

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

78%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

45%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

20%

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals

63%

Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals

26%

Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

66%

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDS Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.56 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDS Tampico Madero attack 1.49 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.27 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

49%

level

26%

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more

25%

CDS Tampico Madero at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CDS Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

R. Martínez← O. Soto

64'

Alan Ramos← J. Angulo

64'

J. Hernández← O. Vidaña

70'

L. Razo← J. Calero

70'

J. Jiménez← C. Blanco

78'

F. Martínez← Á. Tecpanécatl

78'

J. López← K. Peñaloza

78'

D. Piñón← B. Figueroa

78'

A. Padilla← A. Ávila

80'

J. López

81'

J. Lopez

86'

P. Padilla← A. Mendoza

88'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

CDS

Mineros

1

6

15

5

18

▼

Mendoza

11

▼

Ávila

8

▼

Figueroa

10

▼

Blanco

27

▼

19

22

13

4

5

16

7

▼

Tecpanéca

10

▼

Soto

2

Bocco

8

Muñoz

15

▼

Vidaña

27

▼

Angulo

11

▼

Peñaloza

Manager: G. Obledo

52'▲R. Martínez←▼O. Soto

64'▲Alan Ramos←▼J. Angulo

64'▲J. Hernández←▼O. Vidaña

78'▲F. Martínez←▼Á. Tecpanécatl

78'▲J. López←▼K. Peñaloza

CDS Tampico Madero substitutes

22Martínez9Ramos24Hernández19Martínez29López1Huerta3Rivera6García17Domínguez18Mendoza

Manager: Nacho Castro

70'▲L. Razo←▼J. Calero

70'▲J. Jiménez←▼C. Blanco

78'▲D. Piñón←▼B. Figueroa

78'▲A. Padilla←▼A. Ávila

86'▲P. Padilla←▼A. Mendoza

Mineros de Zacatecas substitutes

9Razo30Jiménez7Piñón20Padilla24Padilla4Marmolejo14Mazatán23García99Méndez102Castillo