Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CDS Tampico Madero
CDS Tampico Madero
Preview
01:00
Durango
Durango
10/11/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Tamaulipas
58%
CDS Tampico Madero
model favours
58%24%18%

CDS Tampico Madero score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CDS Tampico Madero58%
×Draw24%
Durango18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDS Tampico Madero
1.69
Durango
0.81

CDS Tampico Madero creates 109% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

CDS Tampico Madero
1.49
Durango
0.89

allows per match

CDS Tampico Madero
0.73
Durango
1.89

finishing

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDS Tampico Madero ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CDS Tampico Madero or draw
82%
CDS Tampico Madero or Durango
76%
Draw or Durango
42%

Winning margin

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+
32%
Durango wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals
82%
CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals
50%
CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals
24%
Durango 1+ goals
56%
Durango 2+ goals
19%
Durango 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
77%
Durango (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDS Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDS Tampico Madero attack 1.49 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Durango attack 0.89 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CDS Tampico Madero scores more
58%
level
24%
Durango scores more
18%

CDS Tampico Madero at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CDS Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 17% of CDS Tampico Madero’s matches
  • 75% of CDS Tampico Madero’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • CDS Tampico Madero and Durango have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Madero
LWLLD
Durango
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CDS Tampico Madero face Durango (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with CDS Tampico Madero hosting Durango. Match starts October 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CDS Tampico Madero host Durango at Estadio Tamaulipas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.