CDJ Tamarite 1–1 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

CDJ Tamarite

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Monzón

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 9Campo La Colomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

CDJ Tamarite39%

×Draw28%

Atlético Monzón33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDJ TamariteExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

CDJ Tamarite

1.27

Atlético Monzón

1.14

CDJ Tamarite creates 11% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 115 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

1.06

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

CDJ Tamarite

1.41

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

CDJ Tamarite

1.06

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJ Tamarite ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CDJ Tamarite or draw

67%

CDJ Tamarite or Atlético Monzón

72%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

61%

Winning margin

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

17%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

72%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

36%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

32%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJ Tamarite at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.41 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CDJ Tamarite scores more

39%

level

28%

Atlético Monzón scores more

33%

CDJ Tamarite at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CDJ Tamarite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff